Football Underachievers (Next Three Days)
This xPts vs Pts value-bets table highlights teams whose recent results differ sharply from their underlying performance. It compares actual points (Pts) with expected points (xPts) over the last 10 matches to identify sides that may be over‑ or under-performing. A large gap can signal potential value when set against the latest 1x2 odds. The fixtures are ranked by the strongest expected returns, but punters should still check team news, injuries, and rotation to understand why recent performance may not match the underlying numbers.
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| Match Date | Competition | Game | Value Bet | xPts | Pts | Diff | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 17:30 | Spanish La LigaLL | Villarreal v Getafe | Villarreal | 18.19 | 11 | -7.19 | 1.5 |
| Sun 16:15 | French Ligue 1L1 | Le Havre v Lorient | Le Havre | 10.61 | 5 | -5.61 | 2.84 |
| Sun 18:15 | Belgian Pro LeaguePro | Sint Truidense VV v Zulte-Waregem | Sint Truidense VV | 13.40 | 8 | -5.40 | 1.82 |
| Sun 18:00 | Portuguese Primeira LigaPrim | Vitoria Guimaraes v Porto | Vitoria Guimaraes | 13.99 | 9 | -4.99 | 5.31 |
| Sun 20:30 | Portuguese Primeira LigaPrim | Estrela da Amadora v Benfica | Estrela da Amadora | 14.12 | 10 | -4.12 | 12.5 |
| Sun 19:45 | Italian Serie ASA | Fiorentina v Juventus | Fiorentina | 11.59 | 8 | -3.59 | 3.71 |
| Sun 15:45 | Dutch EredivisieEre | AZ Alkmaar v FC Groningen | FC Groningen | 15.50 | 12 | -3.50 | 5.4 |
| Sun 20:30 | Portuguese Primeira LigaPrim | Rio Ave v Braga | Braga | 17.38 | 14 | -3.38 | 1.6 |